Covid-19: One Year Later

According to the Santa Clara Health Department, this past weekend marked the 1st anniversary of Santa Clara County’s first official Covid case, so I thought I’d take a look at where we’re at, number-wise, in the country, state and county. The intent is not to insinuate, suggest, or imply anything. Just to report the numbers. I’m taking Covid as serious as anyone. I wear a mask in public places, and avoid public places as much as possible. BUT….

I will dine outdoors on occasion, attend outdoor church services, get take out, go to Starbucks, shop at a retail store and all of that good stuff. In moderation. Despite the seriousness of the situation, I think it’s equally important to support our local businesses as well. 

One message I am hoping to convey here is not to panic. It’s serious, do your part, but don’t overreact. Which is hard to do with the press and social media posting a running case and death total on their front pages everyday for a year now. Unfortunately, you never see an “active” number posted, i.e. the number of people who currently have Covid, which is a fraction of the total. Several organizations attempt to post the number of recovered, and I've included a couple of them here.

So I hope you find this interesting and maybe even educational. Note that the numbers below are as of January 29, 2021.  

UNITED STATES

• Total cases:                  25,615,268
• World Meter estimated recovered:         16,196,528
• University of Virginia estimated recovered: 22,370,648
• % of total population (330.06 million): 7.8%
  
• Case % by age:
• 22.6% 18-29 
• 16.4% 30-39
• 10.1% 17 and under
• 49.1% are 39 and under
• Cases by sex:
• 52.3% female
• 47.7% male
• Total deaths:                 431,619
• % of all USA cases:        1.68%
• Death by age:
• 81.1% of deaths are 65+
• Death by Gender:
• 54% male
• 46% female

Takeaways:

• With over 330 million people in the United States, the 25+ million total case number represents 7.8% of the total population. Again, that is not indicative of how many people currently have the virus.
• Although very few states report the people who have recovered, two organizations have come up with “formulas” that estimate that number. 
• World Meter estimates that of the 25,615,268 cases, 16,196,528 have recovered. 
• The University of Virginia is a little more optimistic, estimating the recovered number at 22,370,648. 
• That would mean that just over 9 million or 3 million people currently have Covid-19. If either of those numbers are true, or at least close to being true, then either 2.7% or 0.9% of the population currently has Covid-19.
• Nearly half (49.1%) of the Covid cases consist of people under 39 years of age. Nearly one in four are under 29. 
• The mortality (death) rate in the United States at 1.68%. In other words, 1.68 out of every 100 Covid cases have been fatal. Or, if you are a glass half full person, 98.32 out of every 100 people who has gotten Covid has survived. As low as those percentages sound, and they are compared to other outbreaks, we can’t forget that over 400,000 people in the US still have died. We are very fortunate those numbers aren’t higher, however. Here’s how Covid compares to recent, albeit much smaller, outbreaks:
• SARS (2002 -2004) mortality rate: 9.6%
• Ebola (2014 – 2016) mortality rate: 40.4%
• MERs (2012-2015) mortality rate: 34.4%
• Swine Flu (2009) mortality rate:  0.2%
• 81.1% of all deaths are people over 65.
• Although fewer men than women have gotten Covid (47%), more men have passed away from it (54%).

CALIFORNIA

• Total cases:                  3,205,947
• World Meter estimated recovered:          1,545,316
• University of Virginia estimated recovered:              2,757,963
• % of USA cases:                 12.5%
• % of state population (31.51 million): 10.17%
  
• Five LA area counties:         1,898,744 (59.2% of state cases)
• Five LA area counties + San Diego county: 2,131,711 (66.5% of state cases)
• 58% of cases are 18-49
• 55% of cases are Latino
• Total deaths:                   39,578
• % of all cases:                  1.23%
• 46% deaths are Latino
• 48% cases are male; 58% deaths are male
• 75% of deaths are 65+

Takeaways:

• California’s 3.2 million cases represent 10% of the state’s population. If the recovered estimates listed above are correct, that would mean either 4.2% or 1.1% of the state’s population currently is infected.
• The state total case number represents 12.5% of the cases in the United States.
• Nearly 60% of the cases in the state are located in the five Los Angeles-area counties. If you include San Diego County, the number goes up to 66.5%.
• Nearly 60% of all cases are people under 49. 
• 55% of all cases and 46% of all deaths are Latino.
• The mortality rate in California is 1.23%, below the countries 1.68%.

SANTA CLARA COUNTY

• Total cases:                 100,470 (6th of 58 counties)
• University of Virginia estimated recovered: 84,253
• % of state cases (3,205,947):        3.13%
• % of county population (1.9 million):        5.3%
• Case % by age 
• 19.4% 20-29 
• 18.0% 19 and under
• 17.5% 30-39
• 54.9% are 39 and under
• Case % by Ethnicity:
• 51% Latino
• 16.1% Asian
• 12.9% White
• Total deaths:                1,344
• % of all SC county cases:       1.34%
• % of all state cases:       0.04%
• By Ethnicity:
• 32% White
• 28.6% Latino
• 24% Asian
• 48.7% cases are male; 51.5% deaths are male
• 87.6% of deaths are 60+
• Underlying health conditions
• 71.9% (1 or more)
• 19.6% (none)
• 8.5% (unknown)

Takeaways:

• To their credit, Santa Clara County breaks down their Covid numbers into a little more detail than the state does.
• Just over 5% of the county’s residents have contracted the virus since January, 2020. If the recovered estimate listed above is correct, then 0.8% of the county’s population is currently infected.
• Although the largest county north of Los Angeles, Santa Clara County’s case total comprises just 3% of the state’s total cases.
• Like in the state, over half of the total cases are Latino.
• Nearly 55% of the cases are people under 39 years of age.
• Over 87% of the deaths are people over 60.
• Nearly 72% of the people who have died had at least one underlying condition, while 20% didn’t have any.

Netflix Nuggets - Lock down recommendations

Since we all have a little more time to enjoy our streaming service subscriptions nowadays, I thought I'd share a few Netflix originals that we've particularly enjoyed. I say few, because the majority of original Netflix programming I find as unappealing and many in bad taste. But a few good ones slip through the cracks every so often. So here are the one's we particularly liked:

• The English Game:  A recently released series set in 18th century England about the early days of soccer and the competition between the classes of the day. We've watched the first three episodes and really like it.

• The Polka King:  Fact-based movie on Polish-born bandleader Jan Lewan who made it big in America in the 1960's, but spent time for drawing his fans into a Ponzi scheme. Labeled as a comedy, this very entertaining story stars the very entertaining Jack Black, who does a fantastic job as Lewan. I had never heard of Jan Lewan before viewing this. And after watching it, I couldn't believe the story was true. But it was.

• Our Souls at Night:  A 2017 Netflix movie staring Robert Redford and Jane Fonda who play widowed neighbors who initially begin a platonic relationship to alleviate their loneliness, until a real romance begins. Very well written and particularly well acted.

• Always Be My Maybe:  Reunited after 15 years, famous chef Sasha and hometown musician Marcus feel the old sparks of attraction but struggle to adapt to each other's worlds. Nice, light-hearted, clean romantic comedy. Ali Wong and Randall Park are very appealing in their roles as Sasha and Marcus.

• Holiday in the Wild:  Another nice, clean romantic comedy, this one starring Rob Low and Kristin Davis. Davis plays a recently jilted single woman who decided to take the African safari trip that she and her ex were supposed to take together. There, she meets single tour guide Lowe. You can take it from there. Nice story though.

• Murder Mystery:  2019 move with Adam Sandler, someone who I normally try to avoid, and Jennifer Aniston about a New York couple who scramble to solve a baffling murder aboard a millionaire's yacht during a long-waited European trip that directly involves them. Not the greatest murder mystery ever made, but it was entertaining brain candy.

• The Christmas Chronicles:  Ok, probably not in the mood to watch this now, but keep it in the back of your head for the coming Christmas season, as it's one of the better Christmas/Santa Claus movies you'll see. Kurt Russell is fantastic as old St. Nick, who takes a couple of depressed kids who recently lost their father on a memorable Christmas Eve adventure.  Side note:  Netflix has another Christmas-based variety show called "A Very Murray Christmas" featuring Bill Murray that was pretty entertaining and worth checking out during the holidays as well.

• The Crown:  A biography of Queen Elizabeth starting prior to her marrying Prince Philip and ultimately becoming Queen. Three seasons of are now available, with season 3 highlighting her reign in the late 1960's and early 1970's. Might be a little more attractive to the female audience, although the few I've watched with Amy were entertaining.

So there you go. I hope you're able to check some of them out and enjoy them. Let me know what you think in the comments below.  Happy viewing!

Movie Review - "Ford vs. Ferrari"

The rivalries that come to mind when one reminisces about sports in the 1960's would probably include the Packers and Cowboys in the NFL and the Lakers and Celtics in the NBA. But one rivalry that flew under the radar for many, including me, was that between Ford and Ferrari in the world of auto racing, specifically the world renown 24 Hours of Le Mans. Still the world's oldest active sports car race in endurance racing, the event has been held annually since 1923 near the town of Le Mans, France. Although it's lost some of it's luster in recent years, it was THE race back in the mid 20th century. And for its first 40 years, an American car manufacturer had never won it.

Wow, what a great premise for a movie!  Hollywood agreed, and so the idea for "Ford vs. Ferrari" was born.

In 1964, after Ferrari won it's fifth straight 24 Hour of Le Mans race, Henry Ford II engaged in lengthy negotiations with Enzo Ferrari to buy the cash strapped Italian car maker, with a a desire to expand Ford's presence in motor sports, and at Le Mans in particular. However, negotiations collapsed due to disputes over control of Ferrari's racing division. As a result, Ferrari backed out and soon after agreed to a minor partnership with Fiat. Fiat would later buy 50% of Ferrari in 1969.

The collapse of the deal spurred Ford to develop their GT40 project, with the intent to end Ferrari's dominance at Le Mans. The movie made it appear that Ford II carried a real grudge against Enzo Ferrari as a result of his decision to go with Fiat. A grudge that we were reminded of throughout the film. In fact, shortly after Ferrari's 11th hour switch to Fiat, Ford II, according to the movie, handed his executives, including a pre-Chrysler Lee Iacocca, a blank check to make that happen. And that's where the story of "Ford vs. Ferrari" really begins.

Matt Damon (Shelby) and
Christian Bale (Miles)

Part of Ford's strategy was to recruit the well known American car builder and former racing champion Carroll Shelby to lead the effort. Shelby actually co-drove the British Ashton-Martin car that won the 1959 24 Hours of Le Mans race. Shelby retired from racing after that year because of a heart condition. After joining Ford racing, a heated and deceptive relationship between Shelby and Ford ensued....at least according to the movie. One of Shelby's first objectives was to recruit British driver Ken Miles, who actually became the chief test driver of Shelby-American in 1963. Although not mentioned in the movie, Miles helped Shelby develop the Shelby Cobra and is also credited with helping develop the Mustang GT350.

Miles would be the target of a couple of Ford curve balls, as Ford II's executives didn't think much of Mile's gruff, shoot-off-the-hip personality, and banned him from driving in the 1965 Le Mans because of feared negative public perception towards the company. However, after a disappointing 1965 La Mans race, Ford II backed down. A decision he wouldn't regret. After helping redesign the GT40, Miles was given the go ahead to participate in the 1966 race, one in which Ford would actually have three cars entered in.

Sharing the drive with Denny Hulme in the #1 Ford car, Mile's GT40 was in the lead at the beginning of the final lap following a nail biting, back-and-forth battle with Ferrari's #1 car that resulted in the latter blowing a gasket. Not sure that actually happened, but it was pretty exciting to watch.

With the three Ford cars now claiming the first three positions in the race, Ford executive Leo Beebe, portrayed as a real dufus in the film, came up with the bright idea of having a publicity photo taken of the three Ford cars crossing the finish line together. For this to happen, Beebe had to instruct Shelby to order Miles to slow down so that the other two cars could catch up, which he did, and Miles would only agree to do because he was told he'd still be declared the winner. Accordingly, the next Ford car, driven by Bruce McLaren and Chris Amon, and the third place Ford car caught up to Miles, and the three cruised across the finish line together. The French race officials, after initially agreeing to Ford's dead-heat "photo-finish", changed their minds due to a little known technicality. Since the McLaren/Amon #2 car had started some 20 yards behind the Miles/Hulme #1 car, it had traveled a farther distance, and because of that were declared the winners. Something that obviously didn't sit well with Miles, although in my research, he was much more upset about it than the movie portrayed. The movie didn't end there, but that's where my review will stop so not to give too much more away.

Since I wasn't aware of this story, much of what I saw in the movie was new to me. After watching the movie, I was anxious to do some research to see how much of the story was true, as some of what happened in it was a little hard to believe, and how much exaggerated. Something not uncommon for movie makers these days to do. But to my surprise, a high percentage of the movie content appears to be pretty accurate. Even the portrayals of most of the characters.

Henry Ford II joy ride:  did this really happen?

Overall, I really enjoyed the movie, and have very little negative to say about it. Although I don't know for sure, I have a feeling the Ford obsession to unseat Ferrari might have been exaggerated a little. As well as the portrayal of Ford II himself, who comes off as a cranky, unpleasant stiff. But he may have been that way, if quotes from the real Iacocca are true. Right before the race started, Miles and the Ferrari #1 driver were shown having a stare down. And of course, on more than one occasion during the race they have a heated confrontation. These and scenes of Shelby giving Ford II a joy ride and a Shelby/Miles wrestling match may have happened, but they had the feeling of Hollywood added movie drama. Minor stuff though. On to the positive.

The writing was very good and held my attention for the entire 2+ hours, which isn’t easy to do! The acting was also superb, as both Matt Damon (Shelby) and Christian Bale (Miles) were great in their leading roles. I had read that Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt were the movie producer's first choices, but I can't imagine them doing as good a job, let alone better, than Damon and Bale. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Best Supporting Actor nomination in Bale's future. Caitriona Balfe as Ken Mile's wife Mollie was also exceptionally good, while Tracy Letts and Josh Lucas as Ford II and Beebe did well playing easy to dislike slime-balls.

So overall, I would definitely recommend "Ford vs. Ferrari", particularly if you are a racing fan. But this was made in a way where you really don't have to be one.

Note:  If you're interested in seeing who all of the 24 Hours of Le Mans winning cars are, check out this site.