According to the Santa Clara Health Department, this past weekend marked the 1st anniversary of Santa Clara County’s first official Covid case, so I thought I’d take a look at where we’re at, number-wise, in the country, state and county. The intent is not to insinuate, suggest, or imply anything. Just to report the numbers. I’m taking Covid as serious as anyone. I wear a mask in public places, and avoid public places as much as possible. BUT….
I will dine outdoors on occasion, attend outdoor church services, get take out, go to Starbucks, shop at a retail store and all of that good stuff. In moderation. Despite the seriousness of the situation, I think it’s equally important to support our local businesses as well.
One message I am hoping to convey here is not to panic. It’s serious, do your part, but don’t overreact. Which is hard to do with the press and social media posting a running case and death total on their front pages everyday for a year now. Unfortunately, you never see an “active” number posted, i.e. the number of people who currently have Covid, which is a fraction of the total. Several organizations attempt to post the number of recovered, and I've included a couple of them here.
So I hope you find this interesting and maybe even educational. Note that the numbers below are as of January 29, 2021.
UNITED STATES
- Total cases: 25,615,268
- World Meter estimated recovered: 16,196,528
- University of Virginia estimated recovered: 22,370,648
- % of total population (330.06 million): 7.8%
- Case % by age:
- 22.6% 18-29
- 16.4% 30-39
- 10.1% 17 and under
- 49.1% are 39 and under
- Cases by sex:
- 52.3% female
- 47.7% male
- Total deaths: 431,619
- % of all USA cases: 1.68%
- Death by age:
- 81.1% of deaths are 65+
- Death by Gender:
- 54% male
- 46% female
Takeaways:
- With over 330 million people in the United States, the 25+ million total case number represents 7.8% of the total population. Again, that is not indicative of how many people currently have the virus.
- Although very few states report the people who have recovered, two organizations have come up with “formulas” that estimate that number.
- World Meter estimates that of the 25,615,268 cases, 16,196,528 have recovered.
- The University of Virginia is a little more optimistic, estimating the recovered number at 22,370,648.
- That would mean that just over 9 million or 3 million people currently have Covid-19. If either of those numbers are true, or at least close to being true, then either 2.7% or 0.9% of the population currently has Covid-19.
- Nearly half (49.1%) of the Covid cases consist of people under 39 years of age. Nearly one in four are under 29.
- The mortality (death) rate in the United States at 1.68%. In other words, 1.68 out of every 100 Covid cases have been fatal. Or, if you are a glass half full person, 98.32 out of every 100 people who has gotten Covid has survived. As low as those percentages sound, and they are compared to other outbreaks, we can’t forget that over 400,000 people in the US still have died. We are very fortunate those numbers aren’t higher, however. Here’s how Covid compares to recent, albeit much smaller, outbreaks:
- SARS (2002 -2004) mortality rate: 9.6%
- Ebola (2014 – 2016) mortality rate: 40.4%
- MERs (2012-2015) mortality rate: 34.4%
- Swine Flu (2009) mortality rate: 0.2%
- 81.1% of all deaths are people over 65.
- Although fewer men than women have gotten Covid (47%), more men have passed away from it (54%).
CALIFORNIA
- Total cases: 3,205,947
- World Meter estimated recovered: 1,545,316
- University of Virginia estimated recovered: 2,757,963
- % of USA cases: 12.5%
- % of state population (31.51 million): 10.17%
- Five LA area counties: 1,898,744 (59.2% of state cases)
- Five LA area counties + San Diego county: 2,131,711 (66.5% of state cases)
- 58% of cases are 18-49
- 55% of cases are Latino
- Total deaths: 39,578
- % of all cases: 1.23%
- 46% deaths are Latino
- 48% cases are male; 58% deaths are male
- 75% of deaths are 65+
Takeaways:
- California’s 3.2 million cases represent 10% of the state’s population. If the recovered estimates listed above are correct, that would mean either 4.2% or 1.1% of the state’s population currently is infected.
- The state total case number represents 12.5% of the cases in the United States.
- Nearly 60% of the cases in the state are located in the five Los Angeles-area counties. If you include San Diego County, the number goes up to 66.5%.
- Nearly 60% of all cases are people under 49.
- 55% of all cases and 46% of all deaths are Latino.
- The mortality rate in California is 1.23%, below the countries 1.68%.
SANTA CLARA COUNTY
- Total cases: 100,470 (6th of 58 counties)
- University of Virginia estimated recovered: 84,253
- % of state cases (3,205,947): 3.13%
- % of county population (1.9 million): 5.3%
- Case % by age
- 19.4% 20-29
- 18.0% 19 and under
- 17.5% 30-39
- 54.9% are 39 and under
- Case % by Ethnicity:
- 51% Latino
- 16.1% Asian
- 12.9% White
- Total deaths: 1,344
- % of all SC county cases: 1.34%
- % of all state cases: 0.04%
- By Ethnicity:
- 32% White
- 28.6% Latino
- 24% Asian
- 48.7% cases are male; 51.5% deaths are male
- 87.6% of deaths are 60+
- Underlying health conditions
- 71.9% (1 or more)
- 19.6% (none)
- 8.5% (unknown)
Takeaways:
- To their credit, Santa Clara County breaks down their Covid numbers into a little more detail than the state does.
- Just over 5% of the county’s residents have contracted the virus since January, 2020. If the recovered estimate listed above is correct, then 0.8% of the county’s population is currently infected.
- Although the largest county north of Los Angeles, Santa Clara County’s case total comprises just 3% of the state’s total cases.
- Like in the state, over half of the total cases are Latino.
- Nearly 55% of the cases are people under 39 years of age.
- Over 87% of the deaths are people over 60.
- Nearly 72% of the people who have died had at least one underlying condition, while 20% didn’t have any.
